Monthly GDP rose 0.5% in February, more than reversing a 0.3% decline in January (that was revised lower from a 0.1% decline). The rebound in monthly GDP in February was broad based across components, as rising contributions were exhibited in PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, net exports, and inventory investment. Averaged over January and February, monthly GDP was 1.2% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Our latest forecast of 1.8% GDP growth in the first quarter assumes a 0.2% increase in monthly GDP in March. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in January following a 0.1% increase in December that was revised down one-tenth. The January decline reflected subtractions from residential investment, PCE, and net exports that were partially offset by an increase in nonfarm inventory investment. The level of monthly GDP in January was 0.7% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our forecast of 1.8% (annualized) growth of real GDP in the first quarter are increases in monthly GDP in February and March of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.