MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Flat in September

Monthly GDP was flat in September for the third consecutive month.  The August reading was revised down from a previously estimated 0.3% increase.  Underlying the September reading were large increases in PCE and nonresidential fixed investment (both reflecting a surge in vehicle sales) offset by a large decline in nonfarm inventory investment (reflecting both the surge in vehicle sales and hurricane disruptions).  The level of GDP in September was roughly equal to the third-quarter average and consistent with our latest estimate of 2.7% GDP growth in the third quarter.   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure. 

MA’s Monthly GDP Measure Rose 0.3% in August

Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in August following a flat reading in July that was revised up one-tenth.  The increase in August reflected positive contributions from nonfarm inventory investment and net exports that were partially offset by a negative contribution from domestic final sales.  The level of GDP in August was 3.8% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate, indicating the US economy was benefiting from solid momentum prior to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.  Our latest forecast of 2.7% GDP growth in the third quarter assumes a 0.5% (monthly rate) decline in September, reflecting our assumptions for the effects of the hurricanes.   Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.