Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in December following a robust, 0.8% increase in November. The December growth rate largely reflected strength in PCE that was partially offset by small declines in nonfarm inventory investment and net exports. The level of monthly GDP in December was 1.5% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 2.4% GDP growth in the first quarter are moderate increases over January, February, and March that average about 0.1% per month (not annualized). Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Monthly GDP rose 0.8% in November, following a 0.3% decline in October that was revised down from a previously reported 0.1% decline. The jump in November reflected sizable gains in both inventory investment and domestic final sales, with little contribution from net exports. Averaged over October and November, monthly GDP was 1.5% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 2.4% GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a 0.3% increase in monthly GDP in December. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.