Monthly GDP rose 0.1% in March following a 0.3% increase in February that was revised down from a previously reported increase of 0.7%. The March figure reflects a moderate increase in domestic final sales that we estimate was mainly accounted for by PCE. Outside of domestic final sales, a decline in net exports was partially offset by an increase in nonfarm inventory investment. The data on monthly GDP through March are consistent with our latest estimate of 0.3% GDP growth in the first quarter. Our latest tracking forecast of 3.8% GDP growth in the second quarter includes a 0.6% increase (not annualized) in monthly GDP in April followed by gains in May and June that average 0.2% per month. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Macroeconomic Advisers hosted its Pre-FOMC briefing webinar Thursday, April 27th. Ken Matheny, senior economist discussed MA’s views of the policy and economic backdrop for the meeting and our expectations for near-term Fed policy. To listen and/or view the recording in its entirety, click here and enter the required information.