Monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in October following a 0.1% increase in September that was revised higher by one-tenth. The slight decline in October reflected a decline in net exports that was partially offset by modest increases in domestic final sales and nonfarm inventory investment. The level of GDP in October was only 0.3% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 2.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a solid, 0.7% increase in monthly GDP in November, driven by increases in inventory investment and net exports. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
Monthly GDP was flat in September for the third consecutive month. The August reading was revised down from a previously estimated 0.3% increase. Underlying the September reading were large increases in PCE and nonresidential fixed investment (both reflecting a surge in vehicle sales) offset by a large decline in nonfarm inventory investment (reflecting both the surge in vehicle sales and hurricane disruptions). The level of GDP in September was roughly equal to the third-quarter average and consistent with our latest estimate of 2.7% GDP growth in the third quarter. Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.