Monthly GDP was essentially flat in December on the heels of a sharp, 1.0% increase in November. The December reading reflected positive contributions from domestic final sales (PCE and nonresidential fixed investment) and net exports that were essentially offset by a decline in nonfarm inventory investment from an unsustainable level in November. The level of GDP in December was 1.4% above the fourth quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest GDP tracking is a small decline in GDP in January followed by increases over February and March that average 0.2% per month (not annualized). Click here for more information on MA’s Monthly GDP measure.
MA’s Joel Prakken was quoted in the article, “Curbing immigration will hurt the economy” by David Nicklaus of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (excerpts shown below). “Joel Prakken, senior managing director at Macroeconomic Advisers in Clayton, says most research shows that immigration helps the economy by increasing the working-age population and by boosting productivity.” Some of the productivity increase comes from skilled immigrants who invent things — people such as Google co-founder Sergey Brin and Tesla founder Elon Musk. It also comes from specialization: As employers hire immigrants for routine tasks, native-born employees move into jobs that make use of their language and communication skills. “You get a larger and more flexible workforce, and you get a larger economy,” Prakken said. “If you told me right now, ‘No more immigrants,’ I would cut my forecast for economic growth dramatically.” (click her for article)